Tough times ahead for big pharma?

pills.jpgCurrently it’s the financial industry that is in trouble. Will the pharmaceutical industry be next? This could well be according to business analysts, in a recent report in the Financial Times.

“For the first time in history, the industry will have negative growth in 2011″ according to Alexis de Rosnay, global co-head of healthcare at Lehman Brothers.

The reasons for the bad prognosis are expiration of patents coinciding with shrinking pipelines and increasing competition from generics. Furthermore, the counterstrategy of mergers and acquisition isn’t seems to be working as expected.

Meanwhile, drug regulations are getting tighter. Alternative medicine, dietary supplements, and homeopathic medications are conquering the market while biotechnology and stem cell research are not delivering the promised blockbuster therapies everybody is hoping for.

In 2007, Roche outperformed for the first time its Swiss archival Novartis in earnings. However, even Roche delivered lower than expected results in the first quarter of 2008 due to decreasing demand for Tamiflu.

Other drug companies are expecting tough times as the patent of their blockblusters are about to expire. GSK’s Lamictal goes off patent this year and Pfizer’s Lipitor in 2010. Other best-selling drugs whose patents are due to expire are Johnson & Johnson’s Risperdal, Astra Zeneca’s Seroquel and GSK’s Avandia, according to FT.

May 31, 2008. Global Issues, Mergers/acquisitions, Drug development. 1 Comment.

One Comment

  1. AAP Broadens Guidelines for Cholesterol Screening for Kids | Health | Babies Online The Blog replied:

    […] Forgive my sarcasm, but I can’t help but wonder if the extended screening guidelines are primarily an attempt by big pharma to expand the market for statin drugs. After all, as fellow Babies Online blogger Science-Mom reported at PharMed News, by 2011 the prescription drug industry could show negative growth for the first time in history. […]

    July 9th, 2008 at 1:16 pm. Permalink.

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